Posted by: John Phoenix
The tense military standoff marked by a significant US military concentration continues to unfold in the Caribbean. Washington now speaks with a forked tongue about its significant military buildup which has taken place since late August 2025, leaving observers to question whether the threat of direct military intervention in Venezuela is receding or evolving into a fake-out strike.
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Conflicting Signals From Washington
Since August 2025, the United States has deployed a formidable naval force to the region, including eight ships, a nuclear submarine, and approximately 10,000 troops. Officially, this mobilization is part of an anti-narcotics operation, with US forces targeting and killing 70 people in 17 strikes on boats allegedly smuggling drugs but which the US has failed to detain and investigate to provide verifiable proof, thus not being able to offer evidence for its claims.
According to The New York Times, US President Donald Trump ordered the CIA to conduct covert operations within the South American republic, signaling a preference for subversion over dialogue. The attacks on Venezuela reportedly could range from airstrikes on Venezuelan military facilities and covert CIA operations to the most extreme scenario, a mission by elite Navy SEALs to capture or assassinate Maduro.
Yet two weeks later, on October 31 President Trump publicly sought to downplay the immediate threat of war, he explicitly stated that he was not considering the possibility of striking the territory of Venezuela. With the WSJ reporting that President Trump has privately voiced doubts to his advisers about the feasibility of a military operation, fearing it could fail to oust Maduro. As the US continues to explore a spectrum of pressure options, from tightening sanctions to direct strikes, indicating that all tools remain on the table.
A Strategy of Maximum Pressure
Despite the public hesitancy, actions on the ground suggest preparations are ongoing. Satellite imagery analyzed by Reuters indicates that the US is upgrading abandoned airfields in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, potentially creating forward operating bases in locations strategically situated approximately 500 miles from Venezuela.
Detailing the potential scale of the threat, reports from The New York Times indicated that the White House is actively considering three specific options for military operations, ranging from airstrikes on military facilities and deploying special forces to capture or assassinate President Maduro, to seizing key infrastructure like airports and oil fields.
The evidence points not to a backing down, but to a recalibration of strategy, so the massive military deployment serves as an intensifying psychological, military and diplomatic pressure on Venezuela. While a large-scale invasion appears to be a less favored option due to its high risks, the administration is keeping all tools from sanctions and covert operations to targeted strikes on the table.
Thus the reported hesitation from the White House, with President Trump’s expressed doubts and public denials of strike plans, could potentially be a strategic feint designed to lull the Venezuelan government into a false sense of security. This tactic would not be without precedent in US foreign policy, where a public facade of de-escalation and openness to negotiation has sometimes been used to obscure final preparations for military action. The objective of such a “fake out” would be to encourage the target nation to lower its guard, potentially dispersing defensive forces or pausing its highest states of alert, thereby creating a more vulnerable and opportune moment for the very targeted strikes or covert operations that US media and officials have been extensively planning.
From Russia with Love
According to a Russian lawmaker Natalia Nikonorova, deputy head of the Russian Federation Council’s International Affairs Committee,
“The publications that Washington is considering ‘tough’ scenarios regarding Caracas are not in themselves equivalent to a decision on a military operation […] in practice, it is much more likely that the United States will rely on internal destabilization and work with the opposition, the creation of a force background, sanctions pressure and diplomatic isolation than on an open invasion.”
While the Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova warned that any US military operation would lead only to escalation, not resolution. There has been talk of the recent Russian deployments of military advisors and delivery of hardware to bolster Venezuela’s defense capabilities forging a long-term partnership aimed at helping the South American country survive any US escalation.
Meanwhile, the Russian State Duma passed a formal appeal calling on world parliaments to condemn the US military buildup, framing it as an unlawful threat to Venezuelan sovereignty. After the UN Security Council rejected Russia’s draft statement calling for restraint and dialogue in the Caribbean Basin.
Energy Despair
Beneath the surface of drugs trafficking posturing and official justifications for military buildup, a more fundamental and cold motive may be driving Washington’s focus on Caracas that being Energy Geopolitics. A compelling argument can be made that the United States’ campaign against Venezuela is, at its core, a strategic gambit born of necessity.
The alarming data on the diminishing returns of the US shale industry begs the question, is this the underlying reason for the relentless pressure to conquer, or at least dominate, Venezuela? The shale oil wells are barely maintaining output levels despite a 70% increase since 2018 in the aggregate lateral feet of drilling which continue to sink deeper and deeper. Signifying a profound and escalating energy crisis within the United States, where greater inputs are yielding stagnant outputs, a clear indicator that the easy, cheap shale oil is gone.
Adam Rozencwajg, global natural resource investment expert said earlier this year
“when we’re talking in 2018-19 that the years of high growth are done and by 2024, 2025 we’re going to be plateauing and beginning to roll over and then it starts to happen I think it’s telling us […] we’re picking up on what’s actually happening […] this move from high growth to no growth is the first step in going from no growth to negative year on year growth.”
Thus, Venezuela’s proven, vast conventional oil reserves being the largest in the world, would become a potential lifeline for the US. Hence the campaign against Caracas is not merely as an ideological crusade, or an anti-drugs trafficking mission but as a desperate, long-term resource grab by an empire whose own energy foundation is slipping.