A rebel attack against a military compound outside Syria’s capital on Wednesday offered the most tangible evidence yet that the country is sliding into armed conflict as regional powers issued an ultimatum for President Bashar al-Assad’s government to stop killing civilians.
Although the attack near Damascus does not appear to have been particularly effective, the target was highly symbolic: a compound of the Air Force Intelligence, which is renowned for its pursuit and torture of activists.
So, too, was the timing. After months of equivocation, Arab leaders are closing ranks on Assad, in part out of concern that the eight-month-old uprising against Assad’s rule is descending into an armed struggle that could spin beyond Syria’s borders.
But Assad’s loss of Arab support appears only to be accelerating the push to arms, by giving his opponents hope that they will soon receive international help. It also may be interpreted as a signal to members of Syria’s armed forces that now is the time to defect, said Fawaz Gerges, director of the Middle East Center at the London School of Economics.
“This is extremely dangerous,” he said. “We’re witnessing the emergence of a potent armed insurgency that could really plunge the region into conflict.”
The insurgency is coalescing around an entity called the Free Syrian Army, a group of defected army officers who fled to Turkey and proclaimed their existence in a YouTube video in July.
The group says it represents as many as 10,000 defected soldiers who are operating in small groups scattered around Syria. It asserted responsibility for Wednesday’s assault on the Air Force Intelligence building in a posting on its Facebook page, saying the strike was intended to “send a message to the regime that the Free Syrian Army can hit anywhere and anytime.”
Diplomats suspect that the number of defectors may be far smaller and that the group also comprises civilians who have taken up arms.
But Col. Malik al-Kurdi, the Free Syrian Army’s deputy commander, said in a telephone interview from Turkey that defections have risen in recent days in response to the Arab League’s decision Saturday to suspend Syria if it does not stop violence against protesters.
Kurdi said the rebel group is pushing Arab leaders to go further, toward the creation of a buffer zone along the Turkish border where a real rebel army can be formed and a no-fly zone imposed.
Neither Western nor regional powers have shown any inclination for military intervention in volatile Syria, but Kurdi said he is confident that it will eventually come.
“We are powerful and we can impose the reality of our power to push the Arab League,” he said.
In the suburbs of Damascus, where Wednesday’s attack occurred, protest organizers hailed the evidence that the Free Syrian Army is emerging as a force to challenge the regime.
“So many people here support the Free Syrian Army, but we need a protected area where it can organize,” said an activist who uses the name Dima, speaking via Skype. “When we started our revolution we were hoping we could remove this regime by peaceful means, but unfortunately we are now 100 percent sure we cannot do this.”
World leaders are still holding out for a peaceful conclusion to the revolt, and are hoping that the escalating diplomatic pressure and growing isolation will force Assad to change course. France withdrew its ambassador to Syria on Wednesday, becoming the first European Union nation to do so. France said it will again try to introduce a resolution condemning Syria at the U.N. Security Council. Russia and China have blocked past efforts to sanction Syria at the United Nations.
The Obama administration, which has called for Assad to step aside, said that U.S. Ambassador Robert Ford is expected to return to Damascus later this month. He was pulled back to the United States in October in response to what U.S. officials said were “credible threats” to his safety.
The three-day deadline to stop the violence or face sanction was issued at a gathering of Arab League foreign ministers in the Moroccan capital, Rabat. Although the ultimatum gives Assad a reprieve from the suspension that had been set to take effect, the ministers signaled that their patience is running out.
“We are close to the end of the road as far as the efforts on this front are concerned,” Hamad Bin Jasim al-Thani, Qatar’s foreign minister, told reporters.
Wednesday’s attack on the Air Force Intelligence compound was only one of several attacks in recent days. Kurdi said the attackers received help from sympathetic officers inside before beginning a four-pronged attack.
“We used [rocket-propelled grenades] and machine guns,” he said. “After hitting the building, we pulled out and we had no casualties. But there were many casualties inside the building because ambulances were coming in and out to take them.”
Residents of the area reported hearing explosions and gunfire around 2 a.m. One said that the only damage appeared to be some broken windows.
Another attack, purportedly on Monday in the southern province of Daraa, was brought to light by a video posted on YouTube in which civilians are seen milling around a blazing armored personnel carrier.
Whether armed rebellion will work where peaceful protests have failed is in question, however. The Syrian government has from the outset maintained that the uprising is the work of what it calls “armed gangs.” Now that some members of the opposition are fighting back against government assaults, the regime may feel justified in using even greater force.
The United States warned on Wednesday that violence “really plays into Assad’s and his regime’s hands,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner said.
“This was a peaceful movement from its inception, and it’s only because of the regime’s repeated and brutal campaign of violence against innocent protesters that we’ve seen the country move down this very dangerous path,” he added.
It is unlikely that the insurgents will be able to acquire enough weaponry to take on the government, which commands the loyalties of a sizable percentage of the population and a strong, well-equipped army, Gerges said.
“If it turns into an armed insurgency, it will be a prolonged conflict,” he said. “And unless a there’s a major shift in the balance of power, no one will be able to dislodge this regime. Maybe in a year, two, three or four years.”
Free Syrian Army grows in influence
Al Jazeera
The attack by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) on an air force intelligence base in the suburbs of the capital Damascus on November 16 has raised the profile of the band of army deserters, who are seeking to end President Bashar al-Assad’s long rule.
Depending on whom you believe, the group is believed to number between 1,000 and 25,000.
What is certain though, is that the deserters want to bring the Syrian government to its knees – by targeting its biggest strength, its 500,000-strong army.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Colonel Ammar al-Wawi, the commander of the FSA’s Ababeel battalion, said: “Our only goal is to liberate Syria from Bashar Assad’s regime.
“To put it simply, we carry out military operations against anyone who targets the peaceful protesters.”
Wawi said the latest offensive on the air force base in Damascus follows a series of attacks
The formation of the FSA was formally announced in July in a web video released by a group of uniformed defectors from the Syrian military, who called upon members of the army to defect and join them.
The FSA has a facebook page where it posts statements and news from across the country regarding its latest offensives, recruits and clashes with government forces. The page has more than 11,500 fans.
Wawi said the latest offensive on the air force base in the Damascus suburbs of Harasta follows a series of attacks that were “as serious and as effective”.
He said that, a day earlier, members of his Aleppo province-based battalion attacked Aleppo’s airforce intelligence complex, located on the outskirts of city.
“We were able to target one of the eight Battlefield Range Ballistic Missiles (BRBM) present there.”
Unlike the attack on the air force base in Damascus, Wawi said the offensive did not gain activists and media’s attention because the base was located in an uninhabited area.
He listed other areas where his battalion had carried out attacks in the north of the country, including in the towns of Maaret al-Numan, Kafr Nabl, Jabal al Zawyeh and Kfar Roumeh.
Military council
Since July, the FSA has evolved to include 22 battalions that are spread across the country, said Wawi.
He said those who refuse to follow commands from the Syrian military to crack down on protests turn to one of the battalions located in their province.
On November 16, the FSA announced the creation of a temporary military council which it said aims to “bring down the current regime, protect Syrian civilians from its oppression, protect private and public property, and prevent chaos and acts of revenge when it falls”.
The council is chaired by Colonel Riyadh al-Asaad, who defected from the regular army to initally form the FSA.
The council’s leadership also includes four colonels and three majors.
Wawi said that the FSA embraces more than 25,000 army deserters, including many high ranking officers.
Colonel Rashid Hammoud Arafat and Colonel Ghassan Hleihel, from the ranks of the republican guards, are the latest high-profile defectors, he said.
Speaking to Al Jazeera, Colonel Hammoud said that while he was in the regular army he kept in contact with the FSA and continued to provide them with advice and support.
“But a few days ago, the FSA told me that I should announce my defection and encourage more soldiers to join their ranks. So I did,” he said.
Like many other army defectors, the colonel announced his defection in a video and posted it on the FSA’s facebook page.
According to Wawi, so many soldiers and officers are defecting every day that he has lost count. He said they are continuously being organised into the different battalions.
‘False hope’
Rami Abdel Rahman, the head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said that the figures for the membership of the FSA are exaggerated.
He estimates that less than 1,000 soldiers have deserted the regular army.
“I am in contact with defectors on the ground and I respect their decision to leave the government forces. But admiration is one thing and accuracy is another,” he said.
“The Free Syrian Army is giving people false hope that they have the required strength to topple the regime.
“But one must keep in mind that the formal Syrian army is compromised of more than 500,000 soldier, not to mention the hundreds of pro-government Shabbeeha [thugs].
“So betting on the ability of the Free Syrian Army to overthrow Assad is a losing bet.”
‘Legitimate role’
While anti-Assad Syrians agree that their uprising, which started in March, must continue until the current government is toppled, they do not necessarily agree on the role of the FSA in it.
Randa, a 24-year-old anti-government activist who lives in the Damascus suburb of Zabadani, said: “The FSA has unfortunately only been effective in tarnishing the peaceful image our revolution had possessed.”
However, Wael, a 27-year-old resident of the central city of Homs’ Baba Amr neighbourhood, which saw major clashes between the regular army and deserters, said: “We cannot watch the government forces killing our friends and families and continue to say we want a peaceful revolution.”
The main opposition bloc, the Syrian National Council (SNC), has tried to maintain a middle-ground.
They voiced their sympathy with deserters and acknowledged their “legitimate role of protecting unarmed protesters,” but they also said that they did not support the FSA’s offensives.
“We must maintain the peaceful nature of the Syrian revolution and we are in continuous dialogue with the FSA to co-ordinate our political stance,” Bassma Kodmani, the spokeswoman of the SNC, told Al Jazeera.
However, it remains to be seen how much influence could the SNC exert on the FSA.
Wawi told Al Jazeera: “Those who count on peaceful means only to overthrow the regime are delusional.”
